The Dragon - What's it going to take?

I have just got back from Ley and Owain's.  Which has put me out a bit me because Owain was throwing around finish times in the 11 hour mark which I hadn't really considered and the thought of 11 hours in the saddle and that was a bit scary. But he's wrong and if he isn't then don't want to worry about that until the 10th hour.  He said he finished the Etape Cymru with an average speed of 16km/hr.  His actual finish time was 8:41:42 over 141.6km or 88 miles.  This is an average speed of 16.33km/hr so would include stops.  Based on completing the Dragon at the same pace as Owain in the Etape Cymru we would finish the 153 km in 9:23.  There are some differences but after some digging it appears that Owain is more crazy than I thought.  The Etape Cymru was shorter but had a whopping 3,000+m of climbing.  Wow my friend wear/hang that medal with pride where ever you came!

The route on Sunday

On Sunday we have 153km and 2,405m of climbing so it is longer but less climbing so I believe that our average speed will be closer to what we achieved on the LCS which was 18.6km/hr (105km and 5:38:310).

The elevation profile for Sunday 

Last year 1823 riders did the Medio Fondo; of them 45 DFF/Query; of those 1,777 that did finish the average finish time was 7:15:32.  This year there are 1,741 riders in the Medio Fondo and just FYI 15.8% of those are female this year compared to 11.7% of riders in the last year.

Quick overview of the event.  This helps me.  I don't think that Owain will want to know this bit, I might be wrong.

• First 9km (5.5miles) mild descent
• To 31.5km (19.5miles) increasingly graduated incline with gradients as much as 15%.  The last 4km to 31.5km are going to be tough.
• Descent to 40km (25miles)
• To 48km (30 miles) a nice long up hill at about 7% I think that this can compare to Box Hill, but longer I think.
• Descent to 56km (35miles)
• First feed station at 58km (36miles) (ETA 03:18-03:48)
• Long <5% incline to 73km (45.5miles)
• Descent to 87km (54miles)
• Short steep climb to 90km (56miles)
• Feed station 2 at 97km (60miles) (ETA 5:32-05:57)
• Fast rolling descent to 106km (66miles)
• Easy (in comparison to what has been) hill to 110km (69 miles)
• Descent to 132km (83miles), one more rolling hill to climb (148m) but will be a nice last effort to enjoy an easy 20km down hill home to 153km or 95.6miles. 

If we average Owain's Etape Cymru pace then Dragon finish time will be 09:23

If we average our LCS pace then Dragon finish time will be 08:14

So I should also say that although I am discussing this,  it doesn't really matter when we finish, as long as we finish together and not last.  If we are the last two, it would have been a long day and I will happily be the last behind Owain.

So if we go half way between Owain's effort in 2013, and our LCS effort last month we would average 17.5km/h and would give us a finish time of 8:44.  If we did achieve that there would still be over 100 riders behind us and potentially up to 45 DNFs.  If we finish in less than 8:30 we will be just about outside the slowest 10% of riders (if based on the 2014 results)

Owain estimated 9:30 I gave 9:00. We shall see.

As long as we take it easy for the first half, we can enjoy the second.  Need to make sure we drink and eat regularly which is what I am now off to figure out.  The worst thing to happen would be to bonk.  Leyla is meeting us at the support stations and the help restock us if needed. What we would do without her I don't know.

Our start time is 09:27 but Medio Fondo riders will be setting off from 09:15 so hopefully we can slip into an earlier launch slot.

I am sure that we will finish, we won't be the last and we will finish together with a time to be proud of whatever that will be. It will be fun too :-) and I know it will hurt after.  We will be taking home a medal that will be awesome.